USIP report on Boko Haram

Here you can find a link to the report I have written for the United States Institute of Peace on Boko Haram.
It's a review of what we know about the group's history, and what has contributed to the situation as we find it. I looked at what some other researchers in the field say and spoke to many journalist friends in Nigeria and outside who have covered the group.
You can also find it here on my archive page.

The nature of Nigeria: Boko Haram and the botched rescue of Chris McManus and Franco Lamolinara

The expected denial from Boko Haram spokesman "Abu Qaqa" came last night, in a conference call with reporters.

"We have never been involved in hostage taking and we never ask for ransom" Saharareporters quoted him as saying.

And, for what its worth, I think he may have a point.

Boko Haram is a group that now sustains itself by bank robberies, like this one on the same day as the events in Sokoto. It's a curious side effect of the banking revolution in Nigeria over the last few years, there are banks in the most remote of places. Easy pickings.

I've been trying to map Boko Haram's activities here. The point of the map is not wholly to point out the geographical difference of the attacks to the Sokoto events; There isn't a whole lot of things to attack in between the north east and the north west, so one might expect a gap between the two.

But my question is, look at the density of bank robberies, shootings and general mayhem in north east Nigeria. If the Sokoto group, calling itself Al Qaeda in the Land Beyond the Sahel, is splinter group of Boko Haram, disconnected from the rump, where are its bank robberies? Kidnapping is an expensive business, how is it funding itself?

In reality Boko Haram's denial will have little meaning at this stage. As far as the understanding from outside goes, it makes little difference as to whether it was Boko Haram, or an offshoot of that organisation, or Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.

For many in the UK, Italy and maybe the US, it's like picking catfish from a bath at a "point-and-kill" joint (see picture above). They're all about the same size, so pondering over exactly which is the best is unnecessary and only going to delay your meal.

But I think this media attention does open an opportunity to have a shot at explaining why, as it sheds some light on deeper issues of what is wrong in Nigeria.

Richard Dowden is spot on when he writes:

And it is not just Boko Haram which benefits from the global fear of terrorism. My friend went on to point out that a quarter of Nigeria’s budget of almost $30 billion this year will be spent on the military and security services. The service chiefs will now have to find – or create something – to justify that and keep it flowing.

I'm not saying that the murders of Chris McManus and Franco Lamolinara are a conspiracy by the Nigerian government, and nor is Mr Dowden. But he is saying that those in power in Nigeria are well able to play things the way they want, never mind the reality.

After all, at the "point and kill" there is no guarantee the fish they bring is the one you selected.

Round up on the botched rescue of Chris McManus and Franco Lamolinara

The Guardian say that the information of the hostages' location came after the arrest of a top Boko Haram man in Kaduna:

Nigerian security agents have been receiving intelligence training from western nations with years of experience in handling terrorism, including the United States and the UK.

Military sources say the training would normally start to show results within 18 to 24 months, about the time since foreign countries began technical assistance to tackle Boko Haram.

A group known as "al Qaeda" in the land beyond the Sahel" claimed in December that it had captured McManus.

The paper's correspondent in Lagos says it shows a disturbing shift in tactics:

Officials say factions within each of the groups have been in contact with each other. According to Nigerian intelligence officials, members of the more radical Boko Haram factions have received training from Aqim in Algeria and possibly Afghanistan. Aqim is thought to have given Boko Haram advice on urban terrorist tactics and suicide bombings.

Aqim has perfected what analysts call a "kidnap economy", thriving off the abduction and ransom of westerners and Africans. It often snatches hostages in one country and moves them across one or more borders, ending up in Aqim bases in Mali. Reports suggest Chris McManus and Franco Lamolinara were moved around but remained within Nigerian borders, which makes it unlikely that Aqim was behind the atrocity.

From last nights' The World Today, Haruna Tangaza in Sokoto tells them the battle raged for hours and they used a tank to get in:

I don't know what this means for the line on the BBC story that "British forces were first in the door".

The FT say that the fact that Boko Haram didn't claim the operation may have some significance.

All in all its still a muddy picture. I think this underlines the fractured nature of the new militancy in northern Nigeria.

As an observer thousands of miles away, I have some questions:

If this was a splinter group, how did they maintain themselves with funding and supplies?

What level now do we put British involvement in this issue?

If it is Boko Haram, will they now retaliate?

McManus and Lamolinara kidnap on Saharareporters

http://saharareporters.com/news-page/saharareporters-first-publish-early-details-botched-rescue-european-hostages

Saharareporters have a much more precise location for the raid: Mabera Layout in Sokoto city, Sokoto South LGA.

They're pretty confident that it was members of Boko Haram who were holding Chris McManus and Franco Lamolinara.

Nigerian forces did take some of the captors alive.

The real problem will be, can we rely on any information that comes from their interrogations?

The government needs to give clear and unambiguous information about the kidnappers to the media, and the Nigerian media need to follow this information up in a thorough way.

I'm not trying to clear Boko Haram in this, just trying to flag up areas of uncertainty.

The risk is that this becomes a very foggy issue with very little reliable information that can be verified... Unfortunately par for the course in Nigeria.

Nigerian hostage rescue failure: Some thoughts

First of all, its clearly terrible for the families of Chris McManus and Franco Lamolinara. All my condolences go out to them.

The BBC's Gordon Corera is saying that sources tell him that the kidnapping was carried out by Boko Haram. He says that a "splinter cell with strong links to al Qaeda".

The people I speak to are unclear on the factionalisation of Boko Haram. Some say they are all under one command, through a 30 member Shura Council, and that there are no factions within the organisation.

However, it is my understanding that the organisation operates with a cell structure, so the members of the Shura Council run essentially 30 operations.

Other decisions are made at an executive level, by Abubakar Shekau, without reference to the Shura Council.

The group has had factional fights. There have been beheadings and killings within the organisation as it purged itself of members who betrayed them, or were too moderate.

It is possible that there are cells who look outward, away from the more parochial concerns of the group.

After all, the group bombed the UN compound in August 2011.

However, most researchers on Boko Haram point out the focus of their demands have been on the Nigerian government, police and local religious leaders, and little rhetoric aimed at international institutions.

Its my view that Boko Haram have proved themselves to be adaptable in the prosecution of their anger, widening the nature of people it is righteous to kill to include anyone they consider to be an "enemy".

Observers have been very reluctant to pin Boko Haram within the al Qaeda framework, rightly, because there are doubts about the nature of al Qaeda in this region. As one said to me "what is al Qaeda anyway?"

The question is how long can the significance of a connection be rejected? If there is a group perpetrating attacks, suicide bombings, kidnaps, and the like, in other words behaving like al Qaeda has done, what difference does it make that we consider them to be a different organisation?

Video showing British and Italian hostage posted to YouTube last year by AFP

This is the footage posted by AFP to YouTube in August 2011. It is believed to show Chris Mcmanus and Franco Lamolinara, along with brief glimpses of their captors, who wear turbans and hold large automatic weapons. The audio has not been posted, but it is believed the men identify themselves and say they are being held by Al Qaeda.