Meme economist Jim O'Neil |
Jim O’Neil struck a rather charming note in his BBC Radio 4 programme on
Nigeria’s potential.
He lists them among his latest group of growing economic powerhouses; the MINTS.
He lists them among his latest group of growing economic powerhouses; the MINTS.
He was like a kindly, ordinary, bloke wondering
around Nigeria saying “wow”.
Of course, his programme was guilty of wearing the same path
in the carpet that I’ve seen in so many other reports. I was almost ticking off the
things that foreign journalists do on their week-long trips to Nigeria; visit
entrepreneurs in Lagos, talk to Dangote, have a meeting interrupted by a power cut,
chin-wag with Ngozi, be wowed by Sanusi, visit Makoko, helicopter ride over theDelta…
But in other places the programme was very interesting.
Nigerian Dream
He rightly pointed to the mismatch in the west’s perception of the problems and the Nigerian view. Everyone outside says corruption is the biggest problem, everyone inside says it is electricity generation.
Nigerian Dream
He rightly pointed to the mismatch in the west’s perception of the problems and the Nigerian view. Everyone outside says corruption is the biggest problem, everyone inside says it is electricity generation.
And he interviewed one of the new Nigerian national oil
entrepreneurs buying up costly and troublesome onshore oil claims from the
majors. It was a side I’ve not heard much from before, and wanted to hear more about.
He boldly flexed his Neo-liberal credentials in his appreciation of
the way that even the poorest pay for their children’s education. He marvelled
at how people are prepared to pay for even the worst kind of schooling because
they “believe in the Nigerian Dream, that their children could become Dangote”. (I was interested in how un-problematic this seemed to him.)
"What's next?"
It was great to hear these issues presented for an audience not necessarily familiar with Nigeria already.
"What's next?"
It was great to hear these issues presented for an audience not necessarily familiar with Nigeria already.
But for all the interesting things, there were lots of
weaknesses.
These weaknesses are inherent in O’Neil’s approach; the investigation
of social science by meme.
That’s what Jim O’Neil does. His reputation is based on
identifying the BRIC nations over 10 years ago, and that was well received. It
took on a life of its own and the meme dominated discourse for ages. As he says at the
introduction to all his programmes this week, he’s constantly asked “what’s
next?”
And this is the start of the problem. The MINTs are a group
of nations who are only linked by their numbers and some basic geographical factors.
The importance of this is that it’s a newly minted (ahem) way of classifying them, and this
obsession with “newness” leaks into the analysis.
Simple
Simple
But really there’s nothing new about the problems Nigeria
faces. They are deep-seated, and concern themselves with all sorts of factors apparently
outside the scope of meme-economics.
There was one shocking bit of panglossian analysis, when O’Neil described
the solution to the power sector problem as “simple”. Anyone who has looked at
it beyond the surface knows it’s a bewildering mishmash of competing and
powerful interests, mixed with a potent, reeking, incompetence in government. That’s
far from simple to solve.
(Although the current privatisation of the system might be a good
start, it might be too soon to cheer. There hasn’t been any delivery yet. I
wouldn’t hold my breath.)
Particularly glaring was O’Neil’s appreciation of Aliko
Dangote.
At one point, chatting on Dangote’s new super yacht, they
discuss how he -kind of- wants to become the richest man in the world. No time
was put aside to look at how he has managed to get where he is, what political and
economic games he has played to agglomerate so much power, and what effect those games have on the potential for more prosperity.
Ifs and Buts
Although Central bank Governor Sanusi Lamido Sanusi was right to point out that Dangote's recent investments in local production have improved local
markets, but what about the years of rigging markets to favour his imports?
Sanusi is also correct to say there should be
nuance in the discussion of corruption, but the particular type of corruption
that is so damaging in Nigeria is the kind employed by a powerful elite who
actually benefit from the deeply problematic situations that O’Neil sees as “simple”.
His analysis is beset by “ifs” and “buts”. “These countries can be huge
if… but…”. And those caveats are pretty big. But the real ifs are not engaged
with.
The elites that control political and economic power in Nigeria are promoted and
held in place through a complex web of social ties, ethnic politics, relations
with former military rulers, and money patronage.
These ties are hidden to the
casual observer, and the meme economist, and mean that the children of Makoko
will never be Dangote.
You can listen to the programme here
You can listen to the programme here